Trump's epic polling collapse started with independents — now he's hemorrhaging his own voters
The latest data suggests Trump’s biggest political advantage may be quietly eroding.
By Scott C. Galenti
President Donald Trump’s approval rating has slipped into uncharted territory as new numbers reveal that his own base is starting to abandon him in droves.
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A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Trump sitting at 34 percent approval overall, with 64 percent disapproving. Among independents, the damage is brutal: only 24 percent approve, while 74 percent disapprove. But the real warning siren for the White House is inside the Republican column, where Trump still holds majority support but no longer looks politically bulletproof. Just 78 percent of Republicans approve of his job performance, while 22 percent disapprove.
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For a president whose entire political brand depends on the expectation of an unbreakable base, the numbers signify a huge crack in the political armor that has protected Trump for years.
While the Reuters/Ipsos numbers show significant erosion, a separate Pew Research analysis suggests something even more dangerous for Trump: the underlying reasons his base once held firm are starting to give way.
In a recent MS NOW segment, anchor Chris Hayes literally laughed out loud at how low Trump’s approval ratings are, especially on inflation.
According to a new Pew survey, Trump’s approval now sits at 34 percent — the lowest of his second term — but the more revealing shift is happening beneath the surface, in how voters view him personally. On traits that once formed the backbone of his appeal, the numbers are sliding in ways that are hard to spin. Just 38 percent of Americans now say Trump “keeps his promises,” down from 51 percent shortly after his 2024 win. The share who see him as “mentally sharp” has also dipped, and even the number who believe he “stands up for what he believes in” — long one of his strongest attributes — has fallen from 68 percent to 64 percent.
That kind of erosion isn’t coming from Democrats — they’ve been locked in opposition from day one. It’s coming from inside the coalition. Pew found that Republican approval of Trump has dropped from 73 percent in January to 68 percent, and confidence in his leadership on key issues like foreign policy and military decision-making has declined alongside it.
Even more telling is what’s happening with the voters who actually put him back in power. Among Trump’s own 2024 voters, approval has fallen from 95 percent in the early days of his term to 78 percent now, a staggering drop in a political environment where presidents typically rely on near-total loyalty from their base. The cracks are especially pronounced with younger voters and Hispanic supporters, where approval has slid sharply, including a 27-point drop among Hispanic Trump voters since early 2025.
And then there’s the broader mood problem that no amount of messaging can easily fix: 56 percent of Americans say ethics and honesty in government have gotten worse under Trump, compared to just 19 percent who say they’ve improved. That perception cuts directly against one of the central promises of his presidency, that he would clean up a corrupt system, and suggests voters are increasingly concluding the opposite.
Put all of that together, and the picture becomes clearer: this isn’t just a president losing independents. It’s a president slowly losing the traits that convinced his own voters to stick with him in the first place, and once that starts to go, the base doesn’t collapse all at once. It erodes, quietly, until suddenly it’s not there when it matters most.
The numbers get uglier when voters are asked about the issues most likely to decide whether Republicans spend 2027 holding gavels or watching Democrats hold hearings. In the Reuters poll on the economy, only 27 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the issue. On cost of living, it is even worse: 22 percent approve and 69 percent disapprove. Inflation is nearly identical, with just 21 percent approving and 70 percent disapproving.
CNN data analyst Harry Enten reports that a staggering 77 percent of Americans explicitly blame Trump for surging gas prices.
And this is where Trump’s problem stops being a “liberals hate Trump” story and becomes something much more dangerous for Republicans. Among GOP respondents, 41 percent disapprove of his handling of cost of living, and 43 percent disapprove of his handling of inflation. That is not a narrative emanating from MSNBC. That is his own voters looking at prices, looking at Trump, and apparently deciding the magic show is getting stale.
Reuters reported that Trump’s approval has fallen from 47 percent when he took office in January 2025 to this new low, with the decline driven by anxiety over prices and the unpopular war with Iran. Reuters also noted that gasoline prices have surged since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran, compounding the political damage.
The poll shows why the Iran conflict is now a political anvil tied to Trump’s ankle. Only 34 percent of Americans approve of U.S. military strikes against Iran, while 61 percent disapprove. Among independents, just 24 percent approve, and 70 percent disapprove. Even on whether the war was “worth” it, only 25 percent of Americans say yes, while 53 percent say no.
Ipsos put the political problem bluntly in its own analysis, writing that the war in Iran has hurt Trump “with both independent voters and even his Republican base” as fuel prices have skyrocketed.
That tracks with the broader pattern in the poll: independents appear to have abandoned Trump first, but Republicans are now starting to follow suit. Only 15 percent of independents say they would vote for the Republican candidate for Congress if the election were held today, compared with 27 percent who say they would vote Democratic. Another 30 percent say they will not vote or do not plan to vote, which is exactly the kind of disengagement that turns “bad polling” into a midterm massacre.
The country’s mood is equally discouraged. Just 19 percent of Americans say the U.S. is headed in the right direction, while 64 percent say it is on the wrong track. Among independents, the wrong-track number hits 72 percent. Even among Republicans, only 46 percent say the country is headed in the right direction.
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Trump’s political machine has always survived by insisting his base would tolerate anything. The Reuters/Ipsos data suggests a more uncomfortable reality: voters may tolerate scandals, chaos, and authoritarian theatrics, but they are far less forgiving when the bill arrives at the gas pump, the grocery store, and the mailbox.
Trump’s problem is no longer just that independents are fleeing. It is that the people who stayed behind are starting to look at the wreckage and ask what, exactly, they bought.
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It’s shocking the numbers aren’t lower! What does that right wing radical law breaking pedo rapist have to do to sink lower in the public opinion polls?
He is losing the non-committal, conditioned vote that gave him the win based on bespoke, segmented messaging that addressed one issue they care about, like inflation or wars. He did not deliver, in fact he made things worse, so they turned the page. It’s like watching a scoop of ice-cream melt on a plate.